Do You Need to Vite Again on the Top 2 Finalist of Anerican.idol

March 18, 2022 Post a Comment

Dear friend

I think that three weeks into this special armed forces performance we can take a few moments to pause and think about where we are and where we go from here.

My first ascertainment is this: there are, roughly, ii primary groups of people out in that location, those who "go information technology" and those who don't. In practical terms, this is what this ways for me: when I write I am either "preaching to the choir" or I am trying to accomplish folks who are "unreachable" (being polite hither).

For the by three weeks, I accept tried to deflate the The states PSYOP narrative, alongside folks similar Andrei Martyanov at Reminiscences of the Hereafter and Bernhard at Moon of Alabama. My wellness does non allow me to sustain such a crazy tempo and I demand to enter something of a "temporary rest mode" if I desire to avoid existence forced into rest by my body.

Yet I still get a daily deluge of questions from those who did not "go it" and, frankly, I am wearied trying to deflate the same stuff over and over and over again.

And so, one last fourth dimension:

In purely military terms, the movie we see now is simple: the Ukie armed services every bit a strategic instrument basically died in the first 24 hours. Then the Russians used a small force to featherbed and block main cities. With some very notable exceptions (Mariupol) they did non try to enter them. Why? For three crucial reasons:

they did non have the manpower needed (in Mariupol the force correlation is about 1:ane when it should really be 3-v:1 in favor of the attacker)
they wanted to kill equally few Ukrainians as possible and
they did not desire to flatten cities just to have to pay for their reconstruction.

So where are the rest of the Russian forces and what are they doing?

They are by and large in their permanent deployment bases and they are ready for a war confronting the U.s.a.+NATO.

And if you lot are the type of believes that "the Russians are running out of manpower" ask yourself why the Black Sea Fleet did not use its elite Naval Infantry, amphibious landing capability or its firepower (I remind you that all the huge damage done to the NATO base in western Ukraine was merely a single salvo from one single minor vessel (what the Russian call a "pocket-size missile ship"), probably with i (country or air based) Iskander to add some specific "punch" where needed. If the Russian were running out of manpower, would she not apply the Black Body of water Fleet to the max? Instead, she is keeping it almost Odessa, set up to strike if/when needed, non only at the Ukraine, merely at NATO as well (ditto for the group of Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean).

This is why Putin refers to this operation as a "special war machine performance" and not as a "state of war" or a "combined artillery operation".

Again, you either "go it" or you don't. It'due south that uncomplicated, really.

Then here is roughly were we are today (yesterday'south Readovka map):

So we are likely to end up with something looking like this:

And I don't see the point of reporting how we will get from the pinnacle map to the projection above blow past blow, town past town.

The real question that comes to my mind looking at the project above is not "how practice we become at that place?" but "where do nosotros go from there once nosotros make information technology?". Right now this conclusion fourth dimension is still probably a couple of weeks into the hereafter.

Whatever may exist the case, I accept decided to stop posting updates every 24-hour interval (sometimes several times a day) and, instead, alternate analyses days and open thread days .

So from at present on, expect analyses just every 2nd day (unless big events happen).

Next, I don't run across any other manner to stop the US+Great britain+PL to arbitrate other than by means of a Iskander/Kalibr strike not "merely" upon any target in the Ukraine, simply also strikes on whatever NATO facility is central to the current war preparations by NATO, including locations in Poland , Romania or anywhere else in Europe.

I hope that I am wrong and that the US+U.k.+PL are non as terminally blinded by their hatred of Russia as to chance an bodily full scale war in Europe.

But I have to acknowledge that this hope is small and getting smaller by the day.

It is therefore quite possible, mayhap fifty-fifty probable, that in the non too distant future we volition run across Us and Russian military personnel coming together in gainsay. If that happens, not only will the risks of a fullscale nuclear war go sharply up, simply it would identify me personally in an impossible situation: I would exist a guest of the United states of america ("Green Card" – I simply have a Swiss Passport) while my country of ethnic origin would be at war with the USA.

I accept therefore taken the following decision: if there is a war in Europe, I will continue to cover it until i) Russian and United states of america soldiers run across in battle and/or 2) a nuclear strike happens anywhere. If nosotros reach either of these points, then this will non just bear witness that the Saker web log failed in its main mission (avoid state of war) merely it volition also place me personally in an incommunicable situation.

If either of the two events happen, I will then "freeze" the blog until the war stops.

I don't similar to accept to take the two decisions in a higher place, in fact I very much regret them both, but things are quickly getting out of mitt and I need to set up, both the blog and my personal life.

Question: remember the Israeli state of war against Hezbollah in 2006?

Hezbollah won this state of war past a humongous margin, and the US+Israel had to surrender to Hezbollah terms. Not only that, but this war made Hezbollah much, much stronger than information technology was earlier. Notwithstanding it began by a miscalculation which Hassan Nasrallah himself admitted: Hezbollah never expected to Israelis to go and then far overboard and basically hammer Lebanese republic with everything they had for over a calendar month.

I see a parallel here.

No, I practise not call back that the Russian military performance has run into whatsoever major issues, mostly what happened in these three weeks must be pretty much what the Russian expected.

In economic terms, there is this big debate at present well-nigh the Russian gilt and strange currency reserves which I am not capable of commenting upon since I am not an economist. I volition allow much smarter people than I deal with that.

I also think that the Russians knew in advance what kind of sanctions the W would innovate sooner or later, but I think that the Kremlin was taken by surprise at the speed and scope of the sanctions. How much of a problem is that? Well, I by and large favor western sanctions against Russian federation because they force Russia to built a sovereign economy and because they de-couple Russian federation from the institutions controlled past the Empire of Lies.

Hither, once more, fourth dimension will tell and much smarter people then I can offer their insights into this.

Still, I remember that most people in Russia are stunned by what is a full-scale "hate war" on Russian federation which we can phone call the "Cancel Russia war". In essence, the West did throw everything information technology had at Russia short of a overt armed forces assailment and knowing the geniuses in power in the United states+UK+PL I would not even put it past them to attempt to fight Russian federation directly.

And so what began equally a special military operation to denazify and disarm Banderastan in a preemptive war turned into a global "Abolish Russia" world war.

How could I blame folks in Russia for not being able to imagine the utter suicidal depravity of the western ruling classes when I, who was born in the middle of Europe and lived all my life in the West could not imagine these ruling classes to be so absolutely out of touch with reality?

Again, to be clear, Russians were not "naive" to "trust" the Due west most anything, only they indeed assumed that the ruling form of the USA would not make up one's mind to blow up the planet economically and even perchance militarily because information technology would hurt the interests of the US ruling form. So if everyone is "dumbshit stupid" information technology is inappreciably the Russians, but rather the folks who dominion over the Us (and, therefore, over the EU too).

There is as well this Russian expression: "you should count your chicks in the Fall". Permit'due south meet by year's terminate who was really dumbshit stupid and who volition accept prevailed.

At present I think that information technology is fourth dimension for all of us, myself included, to allow become of the idea "no, they tin can't possibly by THAT delusional" and assume that yep, they are really THAT delusional.

I also run into another parallel: remember how the U.s. forced Japan into a war and so wrapped itself in the mantle of an innocent victim and alleged "this day shall live in infamy"?

That is exactly what the USA merely pulled off in Europe. And the consequences might be simply as immense.

Merely there is a large difference here: Nippon could not meaningfully strike at the continental USA. Russia very much can, with both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Here I will just repeat the quote past Putin which I mentioned the mean solar day before the Russian special armed forces operation: " if a fight is inevitable you should strike first ". In evidently English language this means that if the Russian come up to the conclusion that the US is engaged in a "Desert Shield" blazon of operation (merits to be but defensive while preparing for months for a fullscale basis invasion) so you can exist sure that Russian federation will strike European union airports, seaports or whatsoever other facility used to set an attack on Russian federation.

In fact, if the Usa/NATO do determine to assail Russia, this volition be the final, nuclear, cease for the western culture every bit such. Afterwards one thousand years of genocidal imperialism, one could be forgiven for thinking that this could be a plumbing equipment, but, end" in the "chicken coming habitation to roost" kind of karmic justice.

Now it is in the easily of the US ruling elites.

Frankly, there is very little Andrei, Bernhard of myself can do virtually that. I sure have said all I have to say on this topic and, over again, some see information technology, others don't – and there is nothing more I tin can do to bear upon this ratio.

The future of our planet now depends on whether the traditional western hatred for all things Russian is bigger or smaller than the cocky-preservation instincts of US ruling class (the Eurolemmings are hopeless).

Just time volition tell. All we can do at present is pray and place our trust and lives into God's easily.

Okay, these are the things I wanted to communicate to you all, my friends and readers. I withal hope for the best, just I have to prepare for the worst, and I desire to be fully aboveboard with all of you.

Kind regards

Andrei

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